![]() Iran's combustible mix of oil, terrorism, nuclear weapons, technology and investment needs sorting out, and only European sticks, American carrots, and China either getting off the fence or out of the way can untangle it. These are the first bilateral strategic priorities - but they are also tests for strengthening cooperation with the key geopolitical leaders of Europe and China. There are countries where America's ability to support even progressive change is slipping: Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Iran, Uzbekistan, Pakistan, and others. So the aim is modesty in all things, and calibrated strategies for each issue and region, not a blanket global doctrine. But many of these really can wait - the world has had enough of America's bright ideas for a while. If the above go well, and they may not no matter who is president, he or she could consider "bold, new, fresh" initiatives which are always over-promised and under-delivered. Then there are relations to normalize: with Latin America and Europe most of all. Initially, in terms of foreign policy, there are messes to clean up, meaning exiting from Iraq while attempting to negotiate a continued troop presence (the Pentagon will demand it), shoring up Afghanistan, and keeping Pakistan stable. America is a world unto itself, and the president's first task is to deal with the home front: immigration, healthcare, education, infrastructure - all areas lacking in political consensus, budgetary funding, and competent leadership. In this context, the task of the next American leader is not to pretend that America can or will ever again run the world, or even singularly lead it. dollar or buying up America because of it. All the countries in the middle are building foreign exchange reserves, establishing sovereign wealth funds, and either buffering themselves against the sliding U.S. Geopolitically, the world is already moving on: the European Union is expanding and building a post-NATO, Euro-centric order stretching from Ireland to Azerbaijan, connecting pipelines to North Africa, signing free trade with the Gulf oil sheikhdoms, and dealing on equal terms with the Chinese.Ĭhina, too, is a post-American superpower, constructing a "Greater Chinese Co-Prosperity Sphere" across all of East Asia and even Central Asia through the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO). The next president - whether Hillary, Obama, or Huckabee - might be granted some global goodwill, but there will be no lengthy suspended animation. ![]() ![]() president will not be able to hit the ground running, for he (or she) must first dampen the fires. Many of these phenomena began to crest in the 1990s, but over eight years Bush has done little but inflame them - the proverbial arsonist in the firehouse. Sadly, the world after Bush will still be Bush's world - plagued by the Iraq War, faltered alliances, terrorism unabated, and anti-American violence. Life after Bush New Statesman | 7 January 2008 ![]()
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